Nobody Knows (Yet Again)
Issue #13 Memos from Howard Marks
When markets get scary, we all start asking:
“What will happen next?”
“Should I sell?”
“Will the market crash more?”
Howard Marks, a legendary investor, says this:
“Nobody knows. And that’s okay.”
The world feels uncertain
Trade wars (US vs China) are back
Prices are rising
Elections, war fears, inflation — it’s messy
Even top experts don’t have answers. Not the US Fed. Not the RBI.
Trade wars are risky
Governments add taxes (tariffs) on imports.
They say: “We’ll protect local jobs.”
But it can backfire:
Raw materials get expensive
Factories using those materials suffer
Fewer jobs in those sectors
Scared markets = best time to invest?
Howard says:
“When it’s time to buy, you won’t want to.”
Because fear makes people sell.
But that’s when smart investors step in.
Example: March 2020
Nifty crashed. Everyone panicked.
But those who bought ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance — they made big money.
The global system is shifting
Post-WWII, countries worked together and traded freely.
Now? Many are turning inward — becoming self-reliant.
India too — with Make in India, PLI schemes, etc.
This shift may:
Slow global growth
Hurt the dollar
Create instability
But it’s also an opportunity for Indian manufacturers and exporters.
So what should you do?
Don’t try to predict the future
Don’t wait for perfect clarity
Stay calm, stay invested
Focus on quality companies
Because when things feel safest, it’s often too late to buy.
Howard’s message is simple:
Accept uncertainty
Be patient
Take action when others are scared
Don’t panic. Don’t guess.
That’s how real wealth is built.
It’s worth reading in full if you like clear thinking in tough times- https://tinyurl.com/3cjxpk58